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    1. #541
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      Re: InstaForex Analytics

      Pound and the euro continue to fall

      Despite good industrial production figures in Germany for March of this year, the European currency continued its decline against the US dollar and a number of other world currencies on Tuesday morning. The speech of the chairman of the Fed was taken by traders with a certain optimism. Although, Powell did not touch on the conditions of monetary policy but instead spoke more about its impact on other developed economies of the world.

      According to the report of the Federal Bureau of Statistics of Germany, industrial production in March 2018 grew by 1.0% compared with February, while economists expected an increase of 0.8%. As stated in the report, the main reason for the growth was the increase in production of capital goods. Compared with March 2017, industrial production in Germany increased by 3.2%.

      Good data from Germany, after the disastrous beginning of the year, instilled some optimism in investors, but, as we see on the EURUSD chart, this is not enough.

      The morning speech by the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, had a positive effect on the quotes of the US dollar. Powell said that despite the Fed's repeated increase in rates since December 2015, financial conditions in the US have become less stringent, while monetary stimulus has had only a relatively limited impact on the flow of capital in emerging economies in recent years. He also noted that the Fed, as much as possible, clearly intends to talk about the prospects of politics in order to avoid unrest in the markets.

      As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, the downtrend persists and so far there are no prerequisites for a reversal. The breakdown at the support level of 1.1890 opens up new prospects for updating the lows in the areas of 1.1830 and 1.1790. The main goal now will be the level of the minimum of December 12, 2017 which is the level of 1.1717.

      The British pound grew reluctantly but returned to the lower boundary of the side channel, which also indicates the continued downward trend in the trading instrument. Pressure on the pound in the first half of the day could be formed by statements of British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson. During the interview, Johnson expressed his dissatisfaction with the plan of the customs agreement, which was proposed by Prime Minister Theresa May and which should enter into force after Brexit.

      According to the minister, the variant of the customs agreement contradicts everything that the UK aspired to by agreeing to Brexit and leaving the EU, since the preservation of import duties in favor of the EU will retain control over trade policy and laws.

      Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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    3. #542
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      Re: InstaForex Analytics

      GBP/JPY Reversed Nicely Off Resistance, Remain Bearish

      GBP/JPY reversed off its resistance at 149.20 (100% Fibonacci extension, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) where we expect prices to drop to its support at 147.14 (horizontal swing low support)

      Stochastic (89, 5, 3) is reversed off its resistance at 96% where it has a lot of corresponding downside potential.

      Sell 149.20. Stop loss at 150.01. Take profit at 147.14.




      *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

    4. #543
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      Re: InstaForex Analytics

      Euro buyers have a chance

      Weak data on producer prices in the US and the performance of representatives of the Fed did not put much pressure on the US dollar, which will continue its steady growth against risky assets.

      According to the report, the producer price index in the US for the month of April this year grew by only 0.1% after rising by 0.3% in March. Economists expected inflation to grow by 0.2%.

      Compared to the same period in 2017, producer prices rose only 2.6%, also showing a slowdown. Economists had expected growth of 2.8%.

      The speech of the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Raphael Bostic, was rather optimistic.

      Bostic said that a gradual increase in rates would lead to an increase in inflation above the target level and the economy is close or has already reached full employment.

      He also noted that the Fed will continue to closely monitor the signs of rising price pressure, as inflation is close to achieving the target level.

      According to the representative of the Fed, the main risk for the US economy is associated with uncertain prospects for trade.

      The buyers of the euro managed to hold within the minimum of the month in yesterday's session, which indicates an upcoming upward correction. However, for this it is necessary to break above the resistance level of 1.1890, where the areas of 1.1930 and 1.1970 open.

      The New Zealand dollar collapsed against the US dollar after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left the official interest rate unchanged at 1.75%, saying that monetary policy will remain stimulating for a long time.

      According to the RBNZ, the growth of the world economy will support the demand for New Zealand exports, and government and consumer spending will support GDP growth. Economists predict annual inflation of 2% in the fourth quarter of 2020, while the current level was previously expected in the third quarter. The official interest rate is also expected at 2% in the first quarter of 2020.

      Data on the Chinese economy have passed without a trace for commodity currencies. According to the report, China's consumer price index rose by 1.8% in April compared to the same period last year. It is important to note that in March, the growth was 2.1%.

      As noted in the report, the main pressure on the index was created by falling prices for pork. Compared with April 2017, it decreased by 16.1%. Prices for non-food products rose by 2.1%. Economists predicted that in April, consumer prices will rise by 1.9%.

      *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

      Analysis are provided by InstaForex

    5. #544
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      Re: InstaForex Analytics

      Daily analysis of major pairs for May 14, 2018


      Daily analysis of USD/CHF for May 14, 2018


      USD/CHF
      In the context of an uptrend the USD/CHF went sideways last week, ranging between the resistance level at 1.0000 (previously a support level) and the resistance level at 1.0050. Eventually, price closed below the resistance level at 1.0000 on Friday, and it may even test the support levels at 0.9950 and 0.9900.

      There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart, which shows the possibility of further upwards movement. However, price would rise again, possibly reaching the resistance level at 1.0000 and breaching it to the upside.

      Daily analysis of USD/JPY for May 14, 2018

      USD/JPY
      The bias on the USD/JPY is bullish – and the trend is still in a precarious position. Price did not go in a strong directional movement last week. It only oscillated between the demand level at 109.00 and the supply level at 110.00.

      A breach above the supply level at 110.00 is anticipated this week, although bulls may not be able to enjoy that victory for a long time, because there is a possibility of a fall back towards the demand level at 109.00. There is currently a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which is, though, weak.

      Daily analysis of EUR/JPY for May 14, 2018

      EUR/JPY


      In a bearish outlook, the EUR/JPY trended downwards on Monday and Tuesday, and then started to make a rally effort. It managed to close above the demand zone at 130.50 on Friday, in the context of a downtrend. It is much more likely that the rally would end up proffering a clean opportunity to go short in the market at strategic supply zones.


      There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Unless the Euro gets strengthened considerably, there might be a reversal in favor of bears, which would enable the market to target the demand zones at 130.50, 130.00 and 129.50.

      Performed by Azeez Mustapha,
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    6. #545
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      Re: InstaForex Analytics

      Correction potential in the euro can be restrained

      The upward correction in the European currency continued on Friday amid a lack of good fundamental statistics on the US economy, as well as rather restrained statements by the representatives of the Federal Reserve, in particular James Bullard, who stated that it was necessary to "slow down" with the increase in rates.

      According to the University of Michigan, consumer sentiment in the US in May remained unchanged. Despite the fact that the index is preliminary, the lack of growth in consumer confidence could negatively affect the economy in the second quarter of this year.

      Thus, the leading index of consumer sentiment at the University of Michigan in May this year was 98.8 points, unchanged from April. Economists had expected the index to be 98.0 points. Let me remind you that in March the mood index rose to 101.4 points, and then began its decline.



      As noted above, the speech of the representative of the Fed Bullard was of a rather interesting nature. Despite the fact that the US economy is in very good condition and there are no problems with inflation growth above 2% the regulator will not, Bullard is concerned that two more rate hikes this year could lead to a coup in the yield curve of government bonds.

      In his view, it is wrong to assume that a reversal of the yield curve will not lead to serious changes in the market. In this connection, the official of the Federal Reserve indicated that he will express his disagreement with the further increase of interest rates this year.

      His colleague in the role, Loretta Mester, was more optimistic. In her opinion, the Fed may have to make their policies deterrent, as the neutral interest rate increases. However, improving economic prospects will be a strong argument in favor of further tightening of monetary policy, as this will prevent overheating of the economy.

      Mester is sure that the prospects for the economy are positive, and the level of full employment has been reached in the labor market.

      As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, buyers of risky assets have already formed a fairly large upward wave, which led the trading instrument to the resistance level area of 1.1980. Only its breakthrough will serve as a new impetus to the opening of long positions in the expectation of updating the highs of 1.2020 and 1.2070.

      If the bulls are not so persistent, and in the resistance area 1.1980 there will be a drop in demand for risky assets, another attempt to return to the market of large sellers with the removal of stop orders of buyers below the support of 1.1930 is not ruled out.

      *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

      Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

    7. #546
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      Re: InstaForex Analytics

      Weak indicators of GDP growth in the Eurozone put pressure on the euro

      The Eurozone's weak economic growth, along with the slowdown in its flagship German economy, has affected the sentiment of traders who are rushing to lock in long positions in the European currency after the recent corrective growth.

      According to the Federal Bureau of statistics, German economic growth slowed in the 1st quarter of 2018. As noted in the report, one of the reasons for the slowdown was a series of strikes that swept through Germany. Thus, GDP growth in annual terms was at 1.2% against 2.5% in the 4th quarter of 2017. Economists also predicted a slowdown in the German economy in the 1st quarter.

      According to the Bureau of statistics, France's GDP growth for 2017 was revised to 2.2%, from 2%, as previously reported. Good GDP growth was recorded in the 1st quarter in Spain, which partly offset the fall in the overall indicator for the Eurozone.

      According to the report of the statistical Agency Eurostat, the growth rate of economic activity slowed. Thus, the Eurozone economy in the 1st quarter of 2018 grew by only 0.4% compared to the previous quarter after an increase of 0.7% in the 4th quarter of last year. These data fully coincided with the preliminary forecast, as well as with the expectations of economists.

      As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, the bearish scenario continues to work out. The breakthrough of support at 1.1890, from which the euro continued to grow on Friday, could lead to a number of new short positions and a further decline of the euro towards the low of 1.1850 and 1.1820

      The British pound did not receive much support after the publication of the report on the labor market, which indicated that from January to March this year, unemployment in the UK remained at its minimum level.

      According to the National Bureau of Statistics, unemployment remained at 4.2 percent, while the number of unemployed in the UK decreased by 46,000 during the reporting period.

      Despite this, the pound continues to decline, moving towards the lower border of the side channel, which was formed after the decision of the Bank of England on interest rates last week in the level of 1.3460.

      Data from the National Bureau of Statistics also came out in the first half of the day, which indicated that industrial production in China in April of this year increased by 7.0% compared to the same period last year after an increase of 6.0% in March. Economists had expected production to grow by 6.4 percent.

      aRetail sales in China rose only 9.4% in April, following a 10.1% increase in March compared to the same period last year. The unemployment rate fell to 4.9% in April.

      Analysis are provided by InstaForex

    8. #547
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      Re: InstaForex Analytics


      Daily analysis of major pairs for May 16, 2018



      Daily analysis of USD/CHF for May 16, 2018


      USD/CHF

      This currency trading instrument has not done much this week, and price itself has nearly gone below the support level at 1.0000, which is an important level. Once the first target at 1.0050 is breached, another resistance level at 1.0100 would be aimed at; and this is something that requires a rise in volatility.

      A rise in volatility is expected today or tomorrow. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart. Price would rise again, possibly reaching the resistance level at 1.0050 and breaching it to the upside.

      Daily analysis of USD/JPY for May 16, 2018

      USD/JPY
      The bias on this pair is bullish – and the trend is now in a strong position. The demand level at 110.00 has been breached to the upside, and while there is a currently a shallow bearish retracement in the market, price is now aiming at the demand level at 110.50.

      There is currently a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which has become stronger as a result of the surge in the bullish movement. For this rally to be sustained, there is a need for continuous buying pressure in the market.

      Daily analysis of EUR/JPY for May 16, 2018

      EUR/JPY

      As it was forecasted earlier this week, and reiterated on Tuesday, the EUR/JPY cross has generated a bearish signal, which has cancelled the recent bullish effort in the market (for the bullish effort simply proffered opportunity to go long). The demand zone at 129.50 is now being tested.

      There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is below the level 50. Further bearish movement is anticipated, which would propel price towards the demand zones at 129.00 and 128.50.


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    9. #548
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      Re: InstaForex Analytics

      Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for May 17, 2018

      The GBP/JPY at 4-Hour Charts seem already making higher highs and higher lows after the MACD Divergence with the price but this pair now getting struggles with the Support Become Resistance level at 149.11 events now this pair already breakout above those level now the GBP/JPY must test the 149.11 level first as their new Support before they can go up, this condition already confirmed by the William %R(14) already at Overbought side. So this pair in a short time manner will be going down to test the 149.11 level.

      Analysis are provided by InstaForex

    10. #549
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      Re: InstaForex Analytics

      Daily analysis of EUR/JPY for May 18, 2018

      EUR/JPY
      There are still mixed signals in the market. The EMA 11 is slightly below the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is slightly above the level 50. It may be prudent to stay away from this market until there would be a directional movement in it.

      At least, in the short-term, nothing has really changed in this market. The price plummeted on Monday and Tuesday and Wednesday, to test the demand zone at 129.50. After that, a rally effort was made, which made price rose by 110 pips, thereby frustrating the bears. Investors may want to wait until there is a directional movement in the market.

      Analysis are provided by InstaForex

    11. #550
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      Re: InstaForex Analytics

      Technical analysis of Gold for May 21, 2018

      Gold price is breaking down below the recent $1,285-$1,295 consolidation. Gold price could see $1,270-75, but the bearish divergence signs continue to warn us that the next big move will be to the upside. I'm a buyer of Gold at the current or lower levels.

      Blue lines - bullish divergence warning
      Green lines - target levels
      Yellow line - medium-term resistance
      Red line - short-term resistance

      Short-term resistance is at $1,292. I expect Gold price to soon break above it and move towards our first targets of $1,302-$1,304. Next important resistance is at $1,310-13 where I can see the next big trend test. With a break above this level, the price will move towards the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. A weekly close above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement will open the way for a bigger move towards $1,425. Gold is at its final stages of the move from the $1,365 level.

      Analysis are provided by InstaForex

    12. #551
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      Re: InstaForex Analytics

      Daily analysis of major pairs for May 21, 2018


      Daily analysis of USD/CHF for May 21, 2018


      USD/CHF
      The USD/CHF is bullish in the long-term, but neutral in the short-term. Price has been consolidating in the past two weeks; whereas that is not strong enough to render the recent bullish bias useless. There is going to be a breakout at last, but the movement to the upside will no longer be a serious thing.

      While USDCHF is supposed to go upwards, there would be a challenge to the upwards move, because CHF is expected to gain serious stamina this week (major currencies will drop versus it). This means that the coming strength in CHF may hinder USDCHF from getting seriously pushed further northwards.

      Daily analysis of USD/JPY for May 21, 2018

      USD/JPY
      The bias on the pair is still bullish. The bullish movement that was witnessed last week has saved the ongoing bullish bias in the market. The bullish movement started in March 2018 and it has held out till now. The supply level at 111.00 was tested before price closed below it on Friday. The JPY may be weakened further this week.

      There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which makes short trades not yet advisable. This week, there is a high probability that the market would continue going upwards, reaching the supply levels at 111.00, 111.50 and 112.00.

      Daily analysis of EUR/JPY for May 21, 2018

      EUR/JPY
      The EUR/JPY has failed to go seriously upwards like its USD/JPY counterpart. The bias on this cross is bearish, but it is a precarious bias. What the market did last week was a zigzag movement without a clear directional propensity (although the general outlook still remains bearish).

      Price moved upwards, downwards, and upwards again, within the supply zone at 131.50 and the demand zone at 129.50. A 200 –pip movement to the upside or to the downside would easily change the bias to bullish or bearish, and that is exactly what is expected this week.

      Performed by Azeez Mustapha,
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    13. #552
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      Re: InstaForex Analytics

      Pound returns to politics

      Quotes of the GBP/USD slumped to a five-month low as it came under fire on three sides. The lack of a unified position within the conservative party on the basic principles of Brexit has revived political risks, negative statistics on the U.K. continues to reduce the likelihood of tightening the monetary policy of the Bank of England in 2018, and, finally, the unrestrained growth of the yield of Treasury bonds pushes up the US dollar. Such an unfavorable background makes the position of the sterling extremely vulnerable, but Forex is good because the situation can be turned upside down in a matter of moments.

      Unexpected comments by Theresa May that Britain will still come out of the Customs Union, became a verdict for the pound. A week ago, the market was walking directly opposite rumors, which at that time had some support for the "bulls" on the GBP/USD. Even for a little while. The Prime Minister said that there is no reason for a second referendum on Scotland's independence, although in the North of the United Kingdom there are quite different sentiments. In general, the divide is felt in all politics, not only in the conservative party, which plays against sterling.

      The futures market is on the verge of abandoning the idea of raising the REPO rate by 25 bp in 2018. Previously, there was confidence in two acts of monetary tightening, and after the May meeting of the Bank of England, the likelihood of a hike in August were regarded as a fifty-fifty. However, the busy economic calendar for the week to May 25 a priori nominates the pound for the title of the most interesting currency of the five-day period. Bloomberg analysts expect to see April inflation and GDP for the first quarter at the same levels of +2.5% yoy and +0.1% q/q, and also forecast a slowdown in retail sales to a six-month low. At the same time, the BoE in its most recent accompanying documents noted that the second assessment of January-March, in fact, is likely to be the best. If inflation also begins to move away from the target in the direction of 3%, the idea of two acts of monetary tightening in 2018 will rise from the ashes. And if so, then the "bulls" on the GBP/USD after long ordeals will still feel the ground beneath their feet.

      Dynamics of the British inflation



      The reason for their optimism can be slowed down and finally, the US dollar. Despite the fact that the news of a truce in the trade war between Beijing and Washington in the form of a temporary cancellation of tariffs for $150 billion imports has benefited the yield of Treasury bonds, however, Bloomberg's median forecast of 3.19% at the end of the year is already close, and the stabilization of the indicator will somewhat curb the enthusiasm of bulls in the USD index. In addition, after a continuous 4-week rally, some of them will probably want to lock in the profit.

      Technically, a clear implementation of the "Broadening Wedge" pattern brought the pair's quotes beyond the upward trading channel, and the "bears" - to the operational space, and brought them closer to the target by 88.6% in the "Double Top" pattern at arm's length. It corresponds to the level of 1.32.

      GBP/USD daily chart



      *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

      Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

    14. #553
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      Re: InstaForex Analytics


      Daily analysis of major pairs for May 22, 2018



      Daily analysis of USD/CHF for May 22, 2018


      USD/CHF
      A short-term bearish signal has been generated on the USD/CHF. The recent 2-week consolidation has threatened the last bullish bias, and price has started going downwards, thus bringing about a “sell” signal. Price is expected to go further and further southwards, reaching the demand levels at 0.9950 and 0.9900.

      There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart, and that has brought about a short-term bearish signal. Further bearish movement can eventually invalidate the long-term bullishness in the market.

      Daily analysis of USD/JPY for May 22, 2018

      USD/JPY
      The market got corrected lower on Monday, in the context of an uptrend. The correction may be an opportunity to enter the market at better prices, for price could still go further upwards, thus saving the extant bullishness in the market. Only a large pullback could threaten the current bias on the market.

      There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which makes short trades not yet advisable, unless the bias on the market turns bearish. This week, there is a high probability that the market would continue going upwards, reaching the supply levels at 111.00, 111.50 and 112.00.

      Daily analysis of EUR/JPY for May 22, 2018

      EUR/JPY
      The situation on the EUR/JPY remains clearly unchanged, for price did not do anything serious on May 21. The bias on this cross is bearish, but it is a precarious bias. What the market did last week was a zigzag movement without a clear directional propensity.

      Last week, price moved upwards, downwards, and upwards again, within the supply zone at 131.50 and the demand zone at 129.50. A 200 –pip movement to the upside or to the downside would easily change the bias to bullish or bearish, and that is exactly what is expected this week. A breakout can happen this week.

      Performed by Azeez Mustapha,
      Analytical expert
      www.instaforex.com
      InstaForex Companies Group


      Trading realities: Trading realities

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